Will Pods Replace Transit?

U While some areas, especially in the U.S., are still fighting the decades-old battle of car versus transit (Exhibit #1 the governor of Maryland's killing of the ready-to-construct Baltimore Red Line in favor of more rural roads), others declare this to be the season for "alternative" ideas in which transit takes on some futuristic, previously unknown shape. After the City of Baltimore issued a very open-ended request for proposals for transportation ideas, it has become the target of such concepts which in one form or another have been batted around for at least as many decades as the cars versus transit battle has been going on. The idea always seems to be how the comfort and convenience of the private cocoon that is the car can be combined with the convenience of not having to drive.

 

SkyTran concept drawing: Straight from the comic books

Some concepts seem to come straight from comic books such as the SkyTran, a monorail like the 1975 system in Morgantown but sleeker. The automated driving capsule, now commonly called a “pod”, is an idea that gets revived periodically, usually envisioned as a futuristic monorail system elegantly elevated over streets with pods gliding effortlessly above congestion, confusion and, likely, above the heads of transportation decision makers as well. SkyTran is currently prospecting in Baltimore, and there are at least two people excited about it already (The Mayor and her transportation chief).

Then there is the idea that new technology can make old-fashioned well know modes of transit super cool. That includes making the bus more attractive through technology variously described as rapid, express, or quick bus or as a "BRT" system operated via smart technology which supposedly has the power to rejuvenate the tired bus becoming the choice mode of hipsters. In reality, it’s usually politicians (specifically budget hawks) are the ones attracted by the comparatively low sticker price of those proposals.

Bus Rapid Transit: Orange Line LA, Ca

Slightly sexier are technological advances that let the good-old streetcar run wirelessly via a battery or induction charging at stations. This, too, is a cost saving idea that doesn't necessarily do much to improve the performance of streetcars in mixed traffic.

However, none of this may be the future.

To some, the real disruption will be the driver-less, autonomous car or if one wants, the autonomous, automated pod. The only question is not if, but when, and how will this disruption impact cars, transit, suburbs and cities?

A lot depends on how people will view car ownership. Michael Dixon, General Manager of the IBM Smarter Cities Group recently commented in a round-table discussion I attended that the model of owning a car and driving it to work is rapidly becoming obsolete because of its inherent inefficiency (most cars sit idle for about 95% of the time). 

I have speculated about various scenarios for how the future may look once autonomous vehicles (AV) become ubiquitous (article). Some scenarios could be really good, others really bad for cities. I assumed that in the good scenarios, car ownership would become a thing of the past in favor of on-demand use which would result in a drastically reduced overall number of cars needed to meet the mobility demand. But, I further assumed that in that scenario larger cities would still have mass transit and not pods meeting the demand, simply because the pods don't have the capacity to replace subways or even light rail. But that isn't the clear conclusion. It could be quite different.

In another scenario with a system where pods/cars would be pooled into endless trains and would use the existing infrastructure of freeways and arteries, thereby acting like mass transit. At a point near the destination they would separate from the pool for the "last mile" and act like a single AV. Under this scenario, multilane roadways could indeed reach very high capacities, given that many high volume highways today already carry more people than many transit lines do, even with the inefficiencies that come from single occupancy commutes.  

If each pod would accommodate the same single person there would still be much added road capacity due to the ability to pack more AVs into every lane. At the same time high speeds could be maintained because of automatic distance guards and braking capabilities and computers optimized to maintain flow and thus reducing the friction that is so typical when individual drivers apply their own personal style of driving to a congested roadway. With computerized coordination, these pods or AVs would combine the efficiences of trains with the flexibility of cars because, unlike mass transit, the system would allow individual AVs or pods to merge into the platoon or leave it at exits. Such a hybrid scenario would bode ill for city centers because of the potential huge influx of those vehicles which would still need lots of space and create massive conflict with pedestrians, bicyclists and undermine concept of streets as social spaces. 

If these AVs would be still privately owned, the demand for car parking and storage would not be reduced. But even if the AVs would drop off riders at a given destination and then continue on available for new taskson a sharing basis (freeing up parking space), a city full of self driving pods could be quite a nightmare. The sheer quantity of such cars moving about to meet users on-demand could be simply staggering, certainly not a joyous prospect for old-school pedestrians, bicyclists, the elderly and children. Plus the issue of the propulsion method remains the same as for cars. If the pods still have combustion engines they will pollute and use lots of energy, if they are electric based on current technology, they would have only limited reach and operation ranges.

 

Milton Keynes pod (Catapult)

An inkling of this undesirable prospect is delivered by the Brits and their model town Milton Keynes, which I imagine as some British type of Columbia, MD, a suburb in search of a city or at least a real town center. There, automated pods have already been unleashed to travel even in pedestrian precincts. (See this report). In Milton Keynes they don't want to consider even a basic form of mass transit. 

One can only hope that it will be a combination of trains, subways, streetcars and maybe even some buses that will complement the pods, possibly by running on some of the lane capacity that would become available from the higher efficiencies that automated systems can achieve. Even then, pods have an inherent potential of inducing even more sprawl if they deliver faster or more convenient transport.

Of course, the trains and buses can themselves be automated with staff being on board only to serve riders or provide safety. 

Whatever scenario will finally emerge, it seems to be a  pretty safe to bet though, that there will be no demand for car-like pods to run on fancy elevated mono-rail guide-ways if they can do this safely, more cheaply and with much more flexibility right there in the existing streets. It is also safe to say that such a future will be much closer than we think. As Feargus O'Sullivan correctly observes in NextCity, planners better start considering the options and nudge development into a desirable direction.

Klaus Philipsen, FAIA
edited by Ben Groff JD

Links:
Telegraph: Milton Keynes pod car
CityLab 2014: Why Personal Rapid Transit is probably never going to happen
Mineta Transport Institute: Automated Transit Networks
Personal transport pods, Baltimore SUN
NextCity: Autonomous pods in Milton Keynes