The future we must dare to imagine

“When did the future switch from being a promise to being a threat?” 

― Chuck Palahniuk, Invisible Monsters ―

Seeing major cities and communities being battered by two hurricanes in as many months with a third in the offing, two earthquakes shake one of the world's largest metro areas in the same time frame and Los Angeles battle a major wildfire can make the future look like a threat, for sure. This article argues for defining future as a promise, instead.

People don't like to imagine terrible possibilities and usually avoid it until calamity stares from every TV screen. Then humans tend to take refuge in actionism and after that avoid thinking much about the future altogether.

Pragmatic humanitarian action, collecting clothes, bottled water and teddy bears or even volunteering in person. Taking individual responsibility and action instead of solely relying on institutions or government is a laudable very American instinct of coming together in the face of adversity.

Houston after Harvey

Of course, it does nothing to change the causes of catastrophes.

Nor do billions of FEMA dollars used recreating the status quo and even less avoidance of imagining the future.

Florida coast after Irma (Ponte Vedra)

Congratulating each other for coming together in adversity would be fine if it wasn't also a method of systematically smothering the larger truth that the pre-catastrophe status was unsustainable and in many cases irresponsible. Whether it is mobile home parks on the Florida Keys, one of the most vulnerable land areas worldwide or residential developments spreading into forests prone to devastating wildfires. Or operating retirement homes that can't be ventilated without electricity.

 

Teddy bears instead of decisive change 

Collectively  smothering thruth, repressing reality and denying risks allowed America to lurch into a state in which not only history has been frequently forgotten or repressed as too undesirable to contemplate, but also the future.

In this collective amnesia only the presence thrives and only what works for the moment is considered for action. Thus property values in high risk areas have risen more than elsewhere, not less, further increasing the vulnerability to disaster. The country is not only unprepared to deal with large scale calamity on almost all levels but business-as-usual protocols make things gradually worse day by day; in Houston, in New Orleans in most of Florida and in vulnerable places across the country. A terrible vicious cycle as a result of collective mental blockage.

It is one of the big ironies that those who dared to see the future and who have highlighted climate change and its dire consequences unwittingly made thinking about the future even more unpopular. Fatalistic paralysis is understandable when only giant steps seem to be adequate but nobody knows how to take them. It is human nature to rearrange the deckchairs if the rudder of the Titanic is out of reach.

But what if that image of the Titanic is misleading? It weren't gigantic momentous steps that got us to where we are but millions of small thoughtless steps that now need to be reversed or re-thought, one by one. The search for the silver bullet, the big heroic action that makes everything right in one step is elusive. Many small steps can break the paralysis and eventually the vicious cycle. Easy steps are readily available in many fields including architecture, engineering and urban design. The concepts of groundwater recharge with stormwater can be realized on any scale, keeping development out of FEMA recognized flood plains or river buffers can be a national practice. Steps towards more diverse mobility options including functional transit or rail service are not only known but taken worldwide. Indeed, the increase in CO2 emissions has slowed in many countries, including the US. Indeed, many structures built to newer codes can withstand high winds and earthquakes. Yet, smart growth, systemic large scale application of these concepts is still rare. Like lemmings continue to rush to peril, the collective paralysis lets sprawl, the paving over of landscapes and the auto dependency continue rampantly often especially in vulnerable areas (Florida, Texas) making the next disaster not only worse in its impact but also more likely.

Often it would make a big difference to think tiny details through to the end,  such as in electrically operated hurricane shutters. Once the power is gone those shutters, intended to protect the structures will render them useless when the interior is pitch dark and unventilated, because convenience drove the design instead of resilience.

The electric grid takes down smart phones as well

Meanwhile government prepares for the much less likely terrorist attacks. It is easier if the enemy is not us.

To respond urgently to an outsized risk before it has morphed into real-life threat is what’s odd. It requires hurdling over the dismaying normalcies of human psychology. (CityLab)

Instead of looking at the big picture in a holistic way and consistently implementing incremental steps from a holistic analysis, consumerism pushes random technology as the solution for issues that haven't been a problem in the first place. Like talking refrigerators or smart phone controlled thermostats. Increasing reliance on cloud-based technology may be the biggest hurdle towards more resiliency: In an event like hurricane Harvey or Irma electronic gadgets are frequently the first thing to go down. Where cell networks are overwhelmed or incapacitated access to all those nice conveniences that could be life savers are out of reach while the analogue versions such as paper maps, land lines, or ham radio have been discarded.  That is not to say old technology would be up to the task: Old fashioned "hard" technologies like bulkheads, levees, dams or pumps are not "smart" because they lack flexibity and redunancy. "We cannot pump our way to safety" writes Pulitzer Prize winner Jed Horne in a memorable piece in the Lens; just as we can't build our way out of congestion with more roadways.

A hundred years ago, when the New Orleans pumping system was considered an engineering marvel, it was the Dutch who came to us in search of guidance. Their version of Katrina was the horrific 1953 inundation that made water management a national purpose of existential urgency. They turned disaster into a much more trenchant learning experience than we have. (Jed Horne)

So how to get out of the spiral? People don't think constantly about their own inevitable death since this would ruin life. Similarly, people can't live if they fret every day about floods, hurricanes, tornadoes, wild-fires and earthquakes. If the only future we can imagine is terror, we rather imagine no future at all.

The solution, then, is to be less pessimistic and rekindle the joy of imagining a better future, one which doesn't instill terror but a desire to live in it. Numbly taking it "one day at a time" and stating that "any day above ground is a good day" is not the answer. It is just an expression of of paralysis and despair. With the gaze low on the ground, we forego the uniquely human ability of not only imagining a future but actually shaping it.  Instead of marching into an undesirable and dangerous future like sheep, lifting the gaze above the horizon towards creativity and fantasy would make us more human and provide the pleasure that comes from setting up opportunity for our children and grandchildren.

 7.1 Earthquake in Mexico September 2017

This isn't promoting a return to past naiv, technology-driven World Expo fantasies devoid of solutions to social problems. Now after unintended consequences have caught up with us and escape from poverty, crime and civil rights violations appear as elusive as ever, the utopias of the past won't do. In using the best gift humans have, the ability of imagining a better future, we can only develop better utopias if we first learn from the past. In the world of development there is much to learn: Not depleting aquifers further to avoid sinking terrain or saltwater intrusion, not constructing building where roofs peel off, not constructing electric grids without redundancy, not making any store sale dependent on a functioning scanner or electronic cash register, not having flood safe back-up power, not having a map in the car when GPS fails are all lessons which to learn do not require more creativity than understanding what failed in the past and imagining an alternative to the standard model, a plan B.

Some societies have learned from calamity throughout history, others have not. After two world wars the major participants in those wars learned enough to avoid global war for nearly 70 years. Recent war mongering language would suggest that the collective memory begins to lapse. The challengo of imagining systems that do not depend on growth and destruction in the name of convenience and greed is a big challenge. It helps to remember that times and cultures actually existed in which those metrics were not the only ones that counted.

Happiness. Why the Places We Live Make Us Happy (CityLab)

The world financial crisis of 2008, climate change, and natural disaster all point to the need for looking at a bigger picture and deriving practical small steps from system thinking. Only then there will be a change in direction instead of the small scattered steps that don't add up to anything.
Change in direction requires the courage of freeing the mind and casting off the shackles which make it impossible to imagine other drivers than growth and greed. Even if the current state of affairs is better than the past, it is not the ultimate and the best of all worlds humans will ever achieve.

There’s no good reason to remain captive to these old ghosts. All they do is stop us having a clear-headed conversation about the future. Jason Hickel, Martin Kirk

What should be the guides for big picture thinking? Quality of life and lifestyle are frequently used qualitative terms which mean different things to different cultures and classes but they are still useful in imagining a world that isn't entirely defined by work, production and consumption. With meaningful and well-paying work becoming ever more difficult to find, utopia needs to be defined by new values beyond work.

we need to be concerned that the potential of the individual is not wasted. New forms of work that enhance the social good will have to be devised for those for whom traditional jobs are not available.(Martin Luther King,  Where Do We Go From Here: Chaos or Community? 1967)

The US Constitution with its basic unalienable rights of Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness provides good clues what those values could be. Somewhat restated it would aim for the largest possible number of members living free, healthy, independent lives in full capacity of what is physically and mentally possible. These values also track the four pillars of ethics, autonomy, beneficience, non-malfeasance and justice.  Living a full life, then, would mean maximal competency instead of maximal convenience, avoiding some of the many new dependencies modern life has brought. In a value system where quality is as, if not more important as quantity the greatest number of skills counts more than amassing the largest number of material goods.

The risk of becoming materially rich and spiritually poor has been recognized for eons. What if a new utopia would not set matter and mind on opposite ends? What if knowledge, wealth and spiritual richness were not mutually exclusive? The resources and means for such a utopia would come from less waste and smarter use of resources in which patches of waste would no longer swirl in the Pacific forming islands the size of small continents. Such a future would be not only worth considering but also fun to plan and design in general but specifically in terms of cities, towns and communities. On a practical level we are far from being on square one. Many appropriate solutions are known, have been researched, tested or implemented either in the US or elsewhere in the world, but continue to be cancelled out by "dumb growth".

Harvey's damage

When it comes to water and floods, Holland is an example how a major catastrophe can trigger lasting and systemic change instead of paralysis. The Dutch, Norwegians, Swedes or Fins but also countries on other continents can provide useful hints for a future based on system thinking with renewable energy, diverse transportation, cheaper and still effective health-care, or high density land-development that still protects natural landscapes. Regardless whether we like those examples or not, they demonstrate not only attractive physical places but also that solutions embedded in a bigger picture create synergy and make people happier, less fearful and angry. System thinking provides rewards beyond resilient buildings that can extend to entire cities and landscapes which are efficient, pleasant and on top of it, can withstand floods, storms and earthquakes or save energy. In truly smart cities, one can have the cake and eat it, too. No such city exists yet, but promising beginnings are made.

Less fear and anger will turn into satisfaction and happiness when the benefits of investing in a long-term future yield a steady return on investment and replace the tenuous conditions of lurching from one calamity to the other which is typical for a short-term gratification system. Some confuse chaos with freedom, denouncing the alternatives as socialism;  In reality, though, continued aim for short-term gain  means less freedom, a truth not only the people in low lying areas in Houston just found out.

Values in considering the future aren't only to be found in the US Constitution, they have been part of culture and history from the American classic of "Zen or the art of motorcycle maintenance" to the fairy tales our grandmothers and mothers have read out to us at bedtime. (Getting granted ten wishes and then squandering them all). All religions demand that the common good should come before the individual interest.

Designing of "what isn't but ought to be" (Jim Rouse) is a highly satisfying undertaking across many disciplines, classes and races and represents an inclusive approach for which America stood as a proud symbol all along.

Baltimore film Step: Happiness
Baltimore Leadership School for Young Women

In light of hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria, and in light of the very real needs arising from the failed approaches of the past, a broader value deliberation isn't "loopy", elitist or removed from solving actual problems. To the contrary, this is the right time to take a broader view. Embracing the future once again as something we cannot only imagine but as something we have the tools to shape can't wait any longer.

The place for creating this future isn't just in Florida or Texas, or in Seattle, Austin, Cupertino or Denver, but also in Baltimore, Detroit, Newark, St Louis and Buffalo and in towns and cities all across America, whether under the threat of hurricanes or not.

Klaus Philipsen, FAIA

CityLab: The Disasters we refuse to imagine
Bloomberg: Harvey Wasn’t Just Bad Weather. It Was Bad City Planning
Don’t Be Scared About The End Of Capitalism—Be Excited To Build What Comes Next

My book, Baltimore: Reinventing an Industrial Legacy City is my take on the post industrial American city and Baltimore after the unrest. 
The book is now for sale and can currently be ordered online directly from the publisher with free shipping.