One Part of the Transportation Revolution is Electrification

Transportation experts and environmentalists dream of a future in which vehicles are fleet based and not privately owned, where they are autonomous and not operated by drivers and where they are powered by electric motors instead of gasoline and diesel. But how would such a future become possible? This blog has looked into car sharing and AVs before. This article is about electrification.

Transportation electrification: Clean air through clean buses

The United States is with 1-2% electric vehicles in the mix far behind global leader Norway (somewhere beyond 30%). People don't know much about electric vehicles but many know the term "range anxiety" and have heard that electric vehicles use at least three different types of "plugs" for charging, making hard to find charging stations even more elusive. They have heard that batteries contain pollutants, are expensive to replace and that the materials that go into them are found in only a few places in the world. What hit the news was that Lithium Ion batteries can spectacularly go up in flames why certain smart phones had been banned on planes. In short, public perception isn't great, no matter that Tesla has greatly altered the preconceived notion that electric propulsion is only for golf carts or maybe Smart Car two-seaters. But experts are pretty certain that an electric driving "tipping point" is near:

Range anxiety: Running out of charge

A revolution is underway in transportation, with a variety of electric vehicles rapidly coming to the fore. The switch from internal combustion engines to electric motors will change the world in many ways and is expected to help reduce the world’s carbon dioxide emissions. Inspired by this vision, leaders in China, France, and Britain have all proclaimed that they will effectively ban cars that aren’t electric by about 2040, while Volvo says all of its vehicles will be powered by electric motors in a few years. Other automakers have also announced that they are headed that way. But how far along is this revolution really? What challenges still need to be overcome to gain truly widespread acceptance on a scale that can combat climate change? (From the abstract of Daniel Sperling, Electric vehicles: Approaching the tipping point)

How far opinions diverge about the right policies and strategies to change public perceptions and invest incentive money became obvious at a recent Midatlantic Transportation Electrification Forum in Philadelphia,  organized by energy provider PECO, a subsidiary of energy giant Exelon.

Predictions about the transportation revolution

On big pot of money for a cleaner future has been made available to States through pollution, the Volkswagen Environmental Trust with about $3 billion: 48 of 50 states use their share of the settlement money extracted from Volkswagen for cheating on their diesel car emissions for investments in electric charging stations and a network. High powered quick charge direct current (DC) stations along Interstates are intended to alleviate range anxiety during long distance trips. (Most electric vehicles max out at about 130 to 250 miles and need a recharge which, especially on the long range vehicles takes many hours on conventional chargers using 110V or 240V alternating current (AC). But Tommy Wells, department head for energy and the environment of the District of Columbia and a panelist at the forum doesn't think government should install charging stations. For the District of Columbia he looked for the biggest polluter and identified it in form of Amtrak's aging switching engines which spew diesel fumes 24 hours a day in the heart of the City at the District's railyards. "If those would be the latest technology", he said, "we could reduce NOx emissions by 3% citywide". Other panelists pointed to buses as the big polluters and to the Chinese city of Shenzhen where 16,000 buses (a fleet of the size of the 5 biggest US transit providers combined) are already fully electric.

Everybody talks about Tesla: It changed the perception about the EV

But even for charger for cars, matters are obvious: At the forum there was plausible dispute about whether chargers are most useful at home, at work or in "retail" locations (akin to gas stations) or whether charging should be cordless altogether through induction pads. The CEO Momentum Dynamics wireless, Andrew Daga, a maker of such wireless charging pads likened them to the EZ Pass and quipped: "EVs are not refrigerators or toasters, they are not supposed to be plugged in".
But his panel colleague Gil Tal, a PhD from the University of California at Davis who heads up their electric vehicle research center, thinks that for a long time to come, home charging is the way to go. Concerns about overloading the grid (an EV vehicle can add about 25%  to an average household electric load) he brushes aside. He says this load can easily be compensated by energy efficiency measures such as LED lighting and better insulation to reduce AC charges.

Fleet vehicles: The German postal service developer its own electric model

Cher Griffith Taylor, an activist of Marylanders for Energy Democracy added the equity dimension to the discussion. She described how conflicted her communities are about EVs and the concern that electric cars are just expensive toys for the rich. "Are the big energy concerns just adopting the term of equity and throw it around to promote their own interest" she wondered aloud. Indeed, the energy giants have ramped up their efforts to lobby for the VW money for more charging stations and they put equity right into their applications:

The competitive market has developed infrastructure in the District where it is easy and profitable, but not necessarily where it is needed, and not in an equitable way. In 1 District of Columbia Department of Energy Environment (“DOEE”), “Clean Energy DC” at p. 157 (October 2016). 5 particular, it is clear that some markets in the District are underserved - like charging stations for MDU residents, taxis, and fleets. Pepco’s involvement can support these policy goals. (Application of PEPCO for approval of its transportation electrification program)

How much big and small corporations put a stake into electrification was on full display at the forum: PECO, of course was as the organizer everywhere. Ford, Tesla, GM, Nissan, Audi and Volvo had passenger cars lined up at the parking lot and offered test rides, Proterra had a full electric bus sitting in the lot and the Canadian company Lion ran a battery yellow school bus around. On the start-up side there was local electric bike entrepreneur Brian Powell with his Junto bike who couldn't believe his luck to sit with representatives of Ford, GM and Eaton on the same panel.

Electric model bus in Lexington: A vehicle is no toaster

Britta Gross,  Director for Advanced Vehicle Commercialization Policy at GM (a title that says it all) touted GM's "three zeros": Zero emissions, zero crashes and zero congestion. She identified the company's all electric Bolt as the first all electric car catered to a mass market. Through GM's Maven program, the legacy automotive giant ("what's good for GM is good for the country") is also represented in the car share market . 900 Bolts ply the streets of various US cities in competition with ZipCar and Daimler-Benz's car2go.

The Forum correctly reflected that transportation electrification doesn't just involve cars. As the China example shows, it may actually be a bigger deal for transit, trucks and any other mode of transportation from scooters to freight locomotives and tugboats. Although public attention is consumed by Tesla and the stuttering mass production of the Tesla 3, in terms of air quality, CO2 reduction and sustainability, trucks and buses make up a much larger portion of the transportation emissions than passenger cars. Questions of electric infrastructure look very different for this segment than for privately owned cars. Charges have to be sufficient for an entire service cycle before a vehicle gets to go back to a garage or parking space unless induction charging becomes common and could occur at bus stops, truck loading ramps or whenever a vehicles stops as part of its service cycle. Quite specific demands exists for fleet vehicles of the postal service, UPS, FedEx or police and fire, and yet another for Transportation Network Companies, (TNCs) whether traditional taxis or disrupters such as Uber and Lyft. The Maryland town of Hyattsville has a Chevy Bolt running as a police squad car.

Hyattsville, MD: Electric patrol car

California probably has the most aggressive transportation electrification program with a menu of "all of the above". The three major utilities, Pacific Gas and Electric, San Diego Gas and Electric and Southern California Edison will spend a total of $613 million for fast chargers, home chargers and electric duty vehicles incentives.Some of that money will come from rate surcharges on consumer bills. In Maryland the Public Service Commission (PSC) held a two day hearing this month about a proposal to spend $104 million on 24,000 residential, workplace and public charging stations, which would make Maryland have the second largest network behind California. (Petition). (Agenda). Utility customers would be asked to pay 25 cents to 42 cents more a month to support the program.

The Maryland program does not include any money for the replacement of dirty heavy duty vehicles. It also has no targets for emission elimination, market share of EVs or specific environmental justice goals. The PSC will allow comments until September 28 and then decide after also coordinating its recommendations with the Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Task Force, which issued its own interim report in 2017. It also is entirely fixated on the consumer market for EVs, leaving all other elements of transportation out.

Dailmer Benz electric city truck

The take home messages from the Forum across the differences that individual presenters had with each other are this:

• Electrification won't simply happen through market forces and needs government regulations and incentives to reach a critical mass
• Utility companies and other infrastructure providers need to make assumptions about how and where the different types of vehicles will be charged and invest accordingly. The bigger and more concentrated demands on the grid will come from heavy duty vehicles and transit
• Renewable energy production and transportation electrification will both significantly alter the typical load and supply profiles for electricity.
• Charging infrastructure is in flux with a range of options and techniques regarding the best way to charge electric vehicles. Especially charging of heavy duty vehicles is still in its infancy
• Commitments and investments by large corporations pretty much will ensure that a shift towards electrification will happen and that batteries will become better and cheaper
• Government needs to pay more attention to where incentives and investment is most effective, where it can balance equity issue the market leaves unanswered and where it should provide regulation to provide standards for the grid/vehicle interface and for signage and placement of public charging stations.

  

  2016 market segments of commercial charging companies (US)

Electrification of transportation represents and opportunity of avoiding past mistakes and imbalances in transportation. Utilities as the providers of electricity can provide an umbrella function under the title "emission free transportation" that would consider all modes of transportation and not limit itself to promoting and supporting mostly electric cars which are, in themselves no answer to the transportation problems metropolitan areas face. Electrification across all modes, vehicle sharing and autonomous vehicles must been seen in tandem and be planned by governments on all levels, planners, engineers and communities. Together they represent, indeed, a transportation revolution that will change everything. 

Klaus Philipsen, FAIA